Vanguard has released a new book, Coming into View, that introduces a groundbreaking, quantitative method in assessing the impact of megatrends on the global economy. The book offers bold new perspectives on the effects of AI, deficits, and demographic shifts for investors, financial advisors, and business leaders.
Author Joseph H. Davis, Ph D., Vanguard’s Global Chief Economist and Global Head of Vanguard’s Investment Strategy Group, also delves into strategies for optimizing portfolios to navigate these economic and market scenarios.
“Coming Into View challenges the conventional belief of the U.S. economy held by economists, government, leading institutions, and central banks,” said Davis. “Whether the effects of artificial intelligence on productivity prevail, or fiscal deficits continue to dominate, there is an 80 percent likelihood our economic and financial future looks fundamentally different going forward.”
Coming Into View
Based on decades of research from the Vanguard Investment Strategy Group, Coming Into View illustrates how the potential of artificial intelligence and technological progress could counteract the significant challenges posed by declining population growth, increasing geopolitical and trade tensions, and mounting national debt, ultimately reshaping the economy in ways that traditional thinking often fail to capture.
“The U.S. economy’s coming decade will be shaped by a tug-of-war between artificial intelligence (AI) and demographics-driven deficits,” said Davis. “The victor—and its margin of victory—will determine the future for growth, inflation, interest rates, and the stock market.”
The book offers actionable insights for investors to help them make sense of the broad social and economic megatrends:
- Effective strategies for investors attempting to prepare for the most likely economic possibilities.
- New data and models to better quantify the impact of economic forces and uncover the risks of relying on consensus assumptions.
- Techniques to avoid common investment mistakes in times of economic change, such as doubling down on technology stocks, or avoiding certain types of investments.
- Guiding investing principles to help achieve greater financial returns, on a risk-adjusted basis.
Endorsements from Industry Leaders:
Jim Collins, author of Good to Great and co-author of Built to Last:
“I enthusiastically welcome the arrival of Joseph Davis’ marvelously insightful book. He extends the timeless wisdom of Jack Bogle into our new world that’s being reshaped by AI and other transformative forces. We must adjust our investment thinking, yet we must also adhere to timeless fundamentals. Coming Into View delivers brilliantly on both, making it the back to the future investment book of our time.”
Azeem Azhar, Founder, Exponential View:
“Joseph Davis masterfully reveals how the tug-of-war between AI and innovation and fiscal deficits will reshape our economic future. Drawing on centuries of data, Davis offers a nuanced view providing investors with scenarios that illuminate both risks and opportunities. This is essential reading for anyone seeking to understand – and profit from—the profound economic transformation already underway.”
Burton G. Malkiel, author of A Random Walk Down Wall Street:
“In this engagingly written investment guide, Joseph Davis reminds us that while the status quo is unlikely to continue, no one can accurately predict the future. But current valuations and basic forces such as demography and technology suggest possible future scenarios on which investors can assign probabilities and align their portfolios for success whatever the future holds. Following the Davis advice can make all of us better investors.”
Coming into View is available for purchase online at all major retailers. The book comes on the heels of Vanguard’s recent 50th anniversary. More information on Vanguard research and analysis on megatrends can be found here.
