A new Vanguard report has found that health and public health responses will be the main drivers of how the economy will look next year, writes Jeff Blumenthal for the Philadelphia Business Journal.

Last week, the investment management giant released “Approaching the Dawn,” its outlook and analysis on the future of the global economy and financial markets.

According to Vanguard Group Global Chief Economist Joe Davis, that title was carefully selected. The word “dawn” represents the hope of a very effective vaccine, but “approaching” is signaling that it is still not here and that investors should have more modest expectations on returns in 2021 and beyond.

“Our economic outlook for 2021 is predicated on positive health outcomes for the broader population, as a healthy economy begins and ends with human health,” said Davis.

This means that the next step to economic recovery depends on greater immunity to COVID-19 and less reluctance by consumers to engage in normal economic activities. If an effective vaccine becomes broadly distributed and administered, much of the pandemic-related losses could be recovered in the next year, states the report.

Read more about Vanguard’s report in the Philadelphia Business Journal here.