It seems no matter how you mix up the Election Day battle map, it all comes down to Pennsylvania. Whichever way voters in the Keystone State go on Nov. 8, so too will go the election.

“Every day, I run 100,000 simulations of the election. … And every day since late July, Pennsylvania has been the state that most frequently is won by the candidate who wins the election,” PredictWise economist David Rothschild wrote in an interview for The New York Times.

“Currently, there are just 6 percent of scenarios where Clinton wins Pennsylvania but loses the election, and just 3 percent of scenarios where Clinton loses Pennsylvania and wins the election.”

The focus on Hillary Clinton is predicated on her current lead in Pennsylvania (78 percent at the moment) and what could potentially be “the greatest imbalance ever in advertising and ground game spending” in her favor.

However, the time between now and Election Day offers plenty of opportunities for Donald Trump to shake up national sentiment — and influence Pennsylvania — of which the first debate could be game-changing.

Read more about PredictWise’s analysis, based on predictive modeling rather than polling, in The New York Times here, and check out VISTA Today’s previous election coverage here.
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